Tsar Nicolas: France awaits a new Emperor

February 9, 2007 at 2:03 am | Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

To some outsiders, the country of revolutions seems fond of change.  We live in the times of the 5^th Republic and numerous regimes have been toppled over the years.  However, for all its upheavals France is a deeply conservative country which does not like change.  In the words of Paul Montfort, a student at the famous Sciences-Po, revolution is the only way the French do change.  The French carry on without changing until things go so bad that they blow up.  Paul feels that such a time has come.

 

Another man who believes that such a time has come is the French Presidential candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy.  Son a Jewish mother and a Hungarian immigrant, he is short man of demonic energy who looks up to another outsider who shook up France two centuries ago, Napoleon.  Sarkozy is an outsider in another important respect.  He is one of the few people in French politics not to come from the Ecole National d’Administration (ENA), a highly selective school whose alumni have gone on to dominate business and politics in France over the last four decades.  President Chirac and Prime Minister de Villepin are Enarques, as ENA graduates are popularly called, and the Socialist Presidential candidate, Sego Royal is an Enarque as well.

 

In a carefully choreographed conference in which Sarkozy was confirmed as the centre-right candidate for the Presidency he gave a rousing speech calling for a “rupture” with the past.  He declared, “Only hard work will create new jobs. Only hard work will get this country out of debt. And it’s hard work that will bring us together as a nation,” and 50,000 audience members gave him a standing ovation.  The confirmation of Sarkozy’s candidature has been called a coronation by the French media.  They termed it, a “sacre”, as the event with its magnificent stage, lighting and camera angles had echoes of another sacre held in 1804 by Napoleon.

 

Sarkozy is also the first French politician to identify close ties with the reviled Anglo-Saxons.  He openly admires Tony Blair and the dynamism of the British economy.  Two weeks ago, he visited London and met Blair.  He also addressed the first mass rally by a French Presidential candidate in London.  Before a packed audience at London’s Old Billingsgate market, he cheekily claimed London as “one of the greatest French cities”, where French men and women had flocked through the centuries to make their fortunes abroad.  He cited Voltaire, Descartes, Chateaubriand and Victor Hugo, who fled to London as exiles looking for freedom, and mentioned Napoleon, who apparently contemplated exile in the city that plotted his doom.  In an extraordinary performance Sarkozy linked the dynamism and energy of French exiles to the transformation he aims to bring about in France.  He admitted that the driven and dynamic French individuals leave because of an atmosphere that discourages entrepreneurship. “They leave because they don’t have diplomas and no one wants to give them a chance,” he said. “They leave because they are risk-takers, and risk is a bad word.”  But he called upon these risk takers to come home and revive the French economy and society.  “To every exile who is unhappy about what is happening in France, and unhappy about leaving, I say: Come home, come home, because together we will make France a great country where . . . everything will be possible, where fathers won’t fear for the future of their children, and where everyone will be able to make their plans come true, and be responsible for their own destiny.”

 

Sarkozy’s energy and dynamism are legendary.  He genuinely wants to turn France around and give its economy a push.  Part of the reason for high unemployment in France is its excessively rigid labour markets.  Firing any employee is extremely difficult and an employer has to shell out “charges patronales”.  This places a heavy burden on small businesses and many are reluctant to hire new staff.  Excessive regulation and a rote based education system inhibit creativity and entrepreneurship even though ironically it the French who coined the word “entrepreneur”.  Sarkozy promises long awaited labour market reforms like ending the 35-hour week and providing financial incentives for people to work more.  He also promises deregulation and the creation of a more business friendly environment.  He has declared that he would exempt all but 5 per cent of the French population from inheritance taxes. He wants to reduce the income taxes from a current 60 per cent to 50 per cent and increase spending on education and research and development.  These are much needed steps and, if carried out, will have a positive impact on the French economy.

 

However, while Sarkozy has some good ideas he has some bad ones as well.  Furthermore, his lack of consistency and opportunism make many uncomfortable.  While Sarkozy declares he is eager for more market oriented reforms he is still wedded to the idea of French firms which act as national champions and has in the past thrown his weight against transnational mergers in which French firms were being acquired.  Also, Sarkozy has been less than candid about the implications of lower taxes for the French people.  The reason taxes are high in France is because the French state sector accounts for 54 per cent of GDP.  If taxes go down the state sector shall have to shrink but Sarkozy does not seem to want to talk about it.  His most preposterous idea has been his suggestion on monetary policy, that the European Central Bank actively use interest rates to stimulate growth.  Not only is such an idea economically unfeasible, it would only cause inflation, but it is also impractical as it would require a new treaty between all EU members.  Sarkozy’s talk of rupture with the past also unsettles many people as he as been a part of the government all along.  He was the Interior Minister when riots broke out in 2005 and his comments describing the rioters as “racaille”, meaning rabble or scum, only aggravated matters.  Furthermore, the riots are traced by many to his decision to abandon community policing and embark upon a tough law and order approach in 2002.  The French suburbs referred to as “les banlieux” are seething.  Unemployed youth from minority communities like Arabs and Blacks are alienated and frustrated.  It is unclear that Sarkozy has any new ideas to tackle this problem.

France is a republic which loves an emperor.  The ancient régime of the ENA elite might be drawing to an end.  This might the start of the era of Tsar Nicolas, a man of great energy and determination.  One only hopes that his good ideas outweigh his bad ones and he does not lead France to another Waterloo.